US talent petitions: approval rates by category in Q2 and Q3 FY2026

Reported decisions from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services for the second and third quarters of the 2026 fiscal year show different petition approval rates across talent categories. O-1 remained broadly stable, EB-1A declined and NIW increased. We cannot predict future trends from these isolated quarters. We also lack visibility into the underlying quality of the submitted applications. These aggregate rates do not establish whether category matters more than applicant qualifications or estimate the prospects of an equally qualified person across categories.

The unit counted here is a petition decision, not a visa issuance or a unique applicant. Approval rate = approvals / (approvals + denials) × 100 for the reporting quarter. Pending petitions and filings without a reported approval or denial are excluded from this denominator.

For the second quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, immi-usa.com reported approvals and denials for nonimmigrant and immigrant petitions. Officers approved 6,915 O-1 petitions while issuing 668 denials during this quarter, translating to a 91.2 percent approval rate.

Adjudicators approved 1,723 EB-1A petitions and denied 2,405 during the same period, resulting in a 41.7 percent approval rate. The National Interest Waiver program recorded a 48.1 percent approval rate in the second quarter.

The Beyond Border report also lists these EB-1A figures. The 4,128 total is the sum of reported approvals and denials, not the number of all petitions filed or pending. For employer sponsored permanent resident categories, the same source reports a 93.8 percent approval rate for EB-1B petitions for outstanding professors and researchers in the second quarter, whereas EB-1C petitions for multinational executives and managers reached a 97.0 percent approval rate.

A September 2026 report published by Manifest Law describes different changes in the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. The EB-1A approval rate fell to 32.2 percent in the third quarter, a decline of 9.5 percentage points from the Q2 figure shown here.

The National Interest Waiver program reached 55.3 percent, an increase of 7.2 percentage points. O-1 petitions recorded a 91.0 percent approval rate in the third quarter, little changed from Q2.

Several underlying factors complicate the interpretation of these governmental statistics. The rates describe petitions decided during a quarter, which need not have been submitted in that quarter. The data does not measure applicant qualifications or the quality of supporting evidence. Changes in the mix of decided petitions can change an aggregate approval rate without a change in adjudication standards.

The decline observed in the EB-1A category lacks any explicit explanation within these aggregate data. They do not establish a tightening of qualification requirements or a change in processing protocols. Two quarters are insufficient to establish a historical minimum or an accelerating downward trend.

The cited publications are secondary summaries of USCIS data. They report lower EB-1A approval rates alongside higher rates for other categories. Their figures should be read with attention to the reporting period, petition category and denominator. We cannot extrapolate these localized quarterly results into broad predictions about future adjudication environments.

For comparison with the British route, see a previous review. The United States figures for forms I-140 and I-129 describe petition decisions across talent categories. They show different aggregate approval rates, but do not isolate the effect of category from applicant qualifications or estimate one person’s chance of receiving a visa.